Scenario Planning

Hi guys, we’re back again.

Today I would like to share with you how to make scenario planning in decision making. Do not worry, it is not like scenario for making sitcom, it is actually the way you predict the movement of your company.

Here is, the sample of making scenario planning for healthy food and beverage company, called Treatmeal

Stage 1: Orientation

The focal issues: how could Treatmeal could survive in this niche market and harsh competition of healthy food & beverages market?

Stage 2: Exploration

Driving Forces:

• Market Demand
• Mature Competitors
• Market Size
• Resources (Human & Natural)
• Permit & Regulations
• Cost & Capital
• Technology Improvement
• Import goods
• Exchange  Rate

Critical Uncertainties:

These uncertainties are raked by its importance:

1. Market Size
2. Mature Competitors

Stage 3:  Scenario Creation

TreatMeal critical uncertainties are market size and mature competitors

Stage 4: Options Considerations

Stage 5: Integration

Early Warning Signals:

1. Bigger market size through time
2. Even more harsher competition
3. Advanced Technological innovations, leads to new product creation (plenty of capital are needed)